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Breitenrain vs Basel II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Breitenrain
Breitenrain
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Basel II
Basel II
10/26/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 14Sportplatz Spitalacker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Breitenrain44%
×Draw23%
Basel II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Breitenrain
1.82
Basel II
1.55

Breitenrain creates 17% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 106 away

creates per match

Breitenrain
1.90
Basel II
1.70

allows per match

Breitenrain
1.40
Basel II
1.75

finishing

Breitenrain+0.00on par
Basel II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breitenrain ↓

Basel II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Breitenrain or draw
67%
Breitenrain or Basel II
77%
Draw or Basel II
56%

Winning margin

Breitenrain wins by 2+
24%
Basel II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Breitenrain 1+ goals
84%
Breitenrain 2+ goals
54%
Breitenrain 3+ goals
27%
Basel II 1+ goals
79%
Basel II 2+ goals
46%
Basel II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Breitenrain (draw refunded)
57%
Basel II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breitenrain at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.40 · 107 matches

Basel II away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.75 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breitenrain attack 1.90 + Basel II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.82

Basel II attack 1.70 + Breitenrain defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Breitenrain scores more
44%
level
23%
Basel II scores more
33%

Breitenrain at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Breitenrain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Breitenrain 1–3 Basel II

Basel II beat Breitenrain 3-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Spitalacker in Bern.