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Basel II vs Breitenrain — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Basel II
Basel II
FT
5 – 11
HT: 2 – 0
Breitenrain
Breitenrain
5/3/20251. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 31Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Basel II45%
×Draw22%
Breitenrain33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Basel II
1.90
Breitenrain
1.62

Basel II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 102 away

creates per match

Basel II
1.90
Breitenrain
1.50

allows per match

Basel II
1.74
Breitenrain
1.89

finishing

Basel II+0.00on par
Breitenrain+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basel II ↓

Breitenrain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Basel II or draw
67%
Basel II or Breitenrain
78%
Draw or Breitenrain
55%

Winning margin

Basel II wins by 2+
24%
Breitenrain wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Basel II 1+ goals
85%
Basel II 2+ goals
56%
Basel II 3+ goals
29%
Breitenrain 1+ goals
80%
Breitenrain 2+ goals
48%
Breitenrain 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Basel II (draw refunded)
57%
Breitenrain (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basel II at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

Breitenrain away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.89 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basel II attack 1.90 + Breitenrain defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.90

Breitenrain attack 1.50 + Basel II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Basel II scores more
45%
level
22%
Breitenrain scores more
33%

Basel II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Basel II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Basel II vs Breitenrain

Breitenrain beat Basel II 11-5 in 1. Liga Promotion on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob in Basel.