Brechin 2–4 Cove Rangers: Result & Stats

Brechin

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 4

Cove Rangers

É. N'Goy 22'

L. Watt 3'

F. Fyvie 36'

D. Glass 30'

M. Megginson 21'

J. Masson 10'

9/14/2019

League Two · Round 6Glebe Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Brechin19%

×Draw19%

Cove Rangers62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrechinExpected goals in this matchCove Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

2.46

Brechin

1.32

Cove Rangers

2.46

Cove Rangers creates 86% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 14 away

0.72

creates per match

2.79

2.12

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Brechin

0.72

Cove Rangers

2.79

allows per match

Brechin

2.12

Cove Rangers

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brechin+0.00on par

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brechin ↓

Cove Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Brechin or draw

38%

Brechin or Cove Rangers

81%

Draw or Cove Rangers

81%

Winning margin

Brechin wins by 2+

8%

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Brechin 1+ goals

73%

Brechin 2+ goals

38%

Brechin 3+ goals

15%

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

91%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

70%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Brechin (draw refunded)

24%

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brechin at home — creates 0.72, concedes 2.12 · 25 matches

Cove Rangers away — creates 2.79, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brechin attack 0.72 + Cove Rangers defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.32

Cove Rangers attack 2.79 + Brechin defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Brechin scores more

19%

level

19%

Cove Rangers scores more

62%

Cove Rangers at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Cove Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

L. Watt↳ M. Knox

10'

J. Masson↳ D. Glass

21'

M. Megginson↳ D. Higgins

22'

É. N'Goy

24'

M. Smith← R. Strachan

30'

D. Glass↳ M. Smith

36'

F. Fyvie

46'

K. Inglis← O. Hamilton

63'

R. Crawford← É. NGoy

68'

C. Antoniazzi← D. Glass

76'

L. Duncanson← P. McManus

76'

M. Scott← J. Masson

Brechin

Cove

1

McKenzie

5

Ross

6

▼

Strachan

12

A

Higgins

3

Milne

24

⚽

Fyvie

11

⚽

▼

Masson

8

Yule

4

Scully

14

⚽A

▼

Glass

9

⚽

Megginson

1

McMinn

5

Hill

4

⚽

3

6

8

2

9

▼

McManus

7

A

Knox

10

⚽

▼

N'Goy

11

▼

Hamilton

Manager: M. Wilson

46'▲K. Inglis←▼O. Hamilton

63'▲R. Crawford←▼É. NGoy

76'▲L. Duncanson←▼P. McManus

Brechin substitutes

14Inglis12Crawford15Duncanson21O'Neil

Manager: P. Hartley

24'▲M. Smith←▼R. Strachan

68'▲C. Antoniazzi←▼D. Glass

76'▲M. Scott←▼J. Masson

Cove Rangers substitutes

23Smith16Antoniazzi10Scott21Demus15Redford17Redman18Brown