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Brechin vs Alloa Athletic — League Cup 2018

Brechin
Brechin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alloa Athletic
Alloa Athletic
7/20/2021League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 6Glebe Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Brechin16%
×Draw17%
Alloa Athletic67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brechin
1.18
Alloa Athletic
2.59

Alloa Athletic creates 119% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Brechin
0.62
Alloa Athletic
1.73

allows per match

Brechin
3.46
Alloa Athletic
1.73

finishing

Brechin+0.00on par
Alloa Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brechin ↓

Alloa Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Brechin or draw
33%
Brechin or Alloa Athletic
83%
Draw or Alloa Athletic
84%

Winning margin

Brechin wins by 2+
6%
Alloa Athletic wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Brechin 1+ goals
69%
Brechin 2+ goals
33%
Brechin 3+ goals
12%
Alloa Athletic 1+ goals
92%
Alloa Athletic 2+ goals
73%
Alloa Athletic 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Brechin (draw refunded)
19%
Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brechin at home — creates 0.62, concedes 3.46 · 13 matches

Alloa Athletic away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brechin attack 0.62 + Alloa Athletic defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.18

Alloa Athletic attack 1.73 + Brechin defence 3.46 → ÷2 → 2.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Brechin scores more
16%
level
17%
Alloa Athletic scores more
67%

Alloa Athletic at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Alloa Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brechin vs Alloa Athletic

Brechin beat Alloa Athletic 1-0 in League Cup on July 20, 2021.

The match was played at Glebe Park in Brechin.