Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alloa Athletic vs Brechin — League #183 2026

Alloa Athletic
Alloa Athletic
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Brechin
Brechin
12/24/2016League #183League #183 · Round 18Indodrill Stadium (Alloa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Alloa Athletic49%
×Draw23%
Brechin27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alloa Athletic
1.78
Brechin
1.27

Alloa Athletic creates 40% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

Alloa Athletic
1.40
Brechin
1.00

allows per match

Alloa Athletic
1.53
Brechin
2.17

finishing

Alloa Athletic+0.00on par
Brechin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alloa Athletic ↓

Brechin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Alloa Athletic or draw
73%
Alloa Athletic or Brechin
77%
Draw or Brechin
51%

Winning margin

Alloa Athletic wins by 2+
27%
Brechin wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Alloa Athletic 1+ goals
83%
Alloa Athletic 2+ goals
53%
Alloa Athletic 3+ goals
26%
Brechin 1+ goals
72%
Brechin 2+ goals
36%
Brechin 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)
64%
Brechin (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alloa Athletic at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Brechin away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alloa Athletic attack 1.40 + Brechin defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.78

Brechin attack 1.00 + Alloa Athletic defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Alloa Athletic scores more
49%
level
23%
Brechin scores more
27%

Alloa Athletic at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Alloa Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #183: Alloa Athletic 1–2 Brechin

Brechin beat Alloa Athletic 2-1 in League #183 on December 24, 2016.

The match was played at Indodrill Stadium (Alloa).