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Brechin vs Albion Rovers — League Two 2018

Brechin
Brechin
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Albion Rovers
Albion Rovers
4/10/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 15Glebe Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Brechin29%
×Draw24%
Albion Rovers47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brechin
1.25
Albion Rovers
1.65

Albion Rovers creates 32% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 79 away

creates per match

Brechin
0.72
Albion Rovers
1.18

allows per match

Brechin
2.12
Albion Rovers
1.78

finishing

Brechin+0.00on par
Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brechin ↓

Albion Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Brechin or draw
53%
Brechin or Albion Rovers
76%
Draw or Albion Rovers
71%

Winning margin

Brechin wins by 2+
12%
Albion Rovers wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Brechin 1+ goals
71%
Brechin 2+ goals
36%
Brechin 3+ goals
13%
Albion Rovers 1+ goals
81%
Albion Rovers 2+ goals
49%
Albion Rovers 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Brechin (draw refunded)
38%
Albion Rovers (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brechin at home — creates 0.72, concedes 2.12 · 25 matches

Albion Rovers away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.78 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brechin attack 0.72 + Albion Rovers defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.25

Albion Rovers attack 1.18 + Brechin defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Brechin scores more
29%
level
24%
Albion Rovers scores more
47%

Albion Rovers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Albion Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Brechin 2–4 Albion Rovers

Albion Rovers beat Brechin 4-2 in League Two on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Glebe Park in Brechin.