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Albion Rovers vs Brechin — League Two 2018

Albion Rovers
Albion Rovers
CANC
15:00
Brechin
Brechin
3/27/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 21The Reigart Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Albion Rovers44%
×Draw24%
Brechin32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albion Rovers
1.60
Brechin
1.32

Albion Rovers creates 21% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 26 away

creates per match

Albion Rovers
1.05
Brechin
1.04

allows per match

Albion Rovers
1.60
Brechin
2.15

finishing

Albion Rovers+0.00on par
Brechin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion Rovers ↓

Brechin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Albion Rovers or draw
68%
Albion Rovers or Brechin
76%
Draw or Brechin
56%

Winning margin

Albion Rovers wins by 2+
22%
Brechin wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Albion Rovers 1+ goals
80%
Albion Rovers 2+ goals
47%
Albion Rovers 3+ goals
22%
Brechin 1+ goals
73%
Brechin 2+ goals
38%
Brechin 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)
58%
Brechin (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion Rovers at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.60 · 78 matches

Brechin away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.15 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion Rovers attack 1.05 + Brechin defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.60

Brechin attack 1.04 + Albion Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Albion Rovers scores more
44%
level
24%
Brechin scores more
32%

Albion Rovers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Albion Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Albion Rovers host Brechin

March 27, 2021: Albion Rovers take on Brechin in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Albion Rovers host Brechin at The Reigart Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.