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Brea vs Barbastro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Brea
Brea
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Barbastro
Barbastro
11/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 6Estadio Municipal de Piedrabuena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Brea40%
×Draw27%
Barbastro32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brea
1.29
Barbastro
1.12

Brea creates 15% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 59 away

creates per match

Brea
1.42
Barbastro
1.51

allows per match

Brea
0.73
Barbastro
1.17

finishing

Brea+0.00on par
Barbastro+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brea ↓

Barbastro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Brea or draw
68%
Brea or Barbastro
73%
Draw or Barbastro
60%

Winning margin

Brea wins by 2+
18%
Barbastro wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Brea 1+ goals
72%
Brea 2+ goals
37%
Brea 3+ goals
14%
Barbastro 1+ goals
67%
Barbastro 2+ goals
31%
Barbastro 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Brea (draw refunded)
56%
Barbastro (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brea at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 45 matches

Barbastro away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brea attack 1.42 + Barbastro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

Barbastro attack 1.51 + Brea defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Brea scores more
40%
level
27%
Barbastro scores more
32%

Brea at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Brea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Brea 1–2 Barbastro

Barbastro beat Brea 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Piedrabuena in Brea de Aragón.