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Barbastro vs Brea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Barbastro
Barbastro
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Brea
Brea
9/18/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 5Estadio Municipal de Deportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Barbastro40%
×Draw33%
Brea27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barbastro
1.02
Brea
0.78

Barbastro creates 31% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 46 away

creates per match

Barbastro
1.02
Brea
0.91

allows per match

Barbastro
0.65
Brea
1.02

finishing

Barbastro+0.00on par
Brea+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbastro ↓

Brea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Barbastro or draw
73%
Barbastro or Brea
67%
Draw or Brea
60%

Winning margin

Barbastro wins by 2+
16%
Brea wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Barbastro 1+ goals
64%
Barbastro 2+ goals
27%
Barbastro 3+ goals
8%
Brea 1+ goals
54%
Brea 2+ goals
18%
Brea 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Barbastro (draw refunded)
60%
Brea (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barbastro at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.65 · 60 matches

Brea away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barbastro attack 1.02 + Brea defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Brea attack 0.91 + Barbastro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Barbastro scores more
40%
level
33%
Brea scores more
27%

Barbastro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Barbastro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Barbastro 0–1 Brea

Brea beat Barbastro 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 18, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Deportes in Barbastro.