Bray Wanderers 1–2 Waterford: Result & Stats

Bray Wanderers

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Waterford

Trialist F 85'

Trialist C 68'

Trialist D 30'

1/6/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bray Wanderers41%

×Draw21%

Waterford38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bray WanderersExpected goals in this matchWaterford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.90

Bray Wanderers

2.00

Waterford

1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.60

creates per match

1.40

2.40

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Bray Wanderers

2.60

Waterford

1.40

allows per match

Bray Wanderers

2.40

Waterford

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bray Wanderers+0.00on par

Waterford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bray Wanderers ↓

Waterford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Bray Wanderers or draw

62%

Bray Wanderers or Waterford

79%

Draw or Waterford

59%

Winning margin

Bray Wanderers wins by 2+

23%

Waterford wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Bray Wanderers 1+ goals

86%

Bray Wanderers 2+ goals

59%

Bray Wanderers 3+ goals

32%

Waterford 1+ goals

85%

Waterford 2+ goals

56%

Waterford 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Bray Wanderers (draw refunded)

52%

Waterford (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bray Wanderers at home — creates 2.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Waterford away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bray Wanderers attack 2.60 + Waterford defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.00

Waterford attack 1.40 + Bray Wanderers defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bray Wanderers scores more

41%

level

21%

Waterford scores more

38%

Bray Wanderers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bray Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Trialist D

68'

Trialist C

85'

Trialist F

Bray

Waterford

41

5

6

7

8

⚽

C

9

Amond

15

⚽

16

17

19

20

35

3

10

12

14

17

15

19

26

31

32

Manager: Paul Heffernan

Bray Wanderers substitutes

25McGuinnes6Kelly7Knight18Mclaughlin20Kizenga21Knight22Dylan28F29Keogh30Fagbemi33Bramley

Manager: Jonathan Daly

Waterford substitutes

1McMullan2Heeney4CoutoCala18Lonergan22Mansfield27Coyne29Keane35Lapite40Carty99G

Match Recap: Bray Wanderers vs Waterford

Waterford beat Bray Wanderers 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 6, 2026.

Goals: Trialist D (30'), Trialist C (68'), Trialist F (85').

Bray Wanderers vs Waterford — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bray Wanderers vs Waterford