Bray Wanderers 1–2 Waterford: Result & Stats

Bray Wanderers

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Waterford

C. Omorehiomwan 3'

R. Coughlan 75', 55'

4/28/2023

First Division · Round 11Carlisle Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Bray Wanderers27%

×Draw23%

Waterford50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bray WanderersExpected goals in this matchWaterford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.81

Bray Wanderers

1.26

Waterford

1.81

Waterford creates 44% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 37 away

1.69

creates per match

2.32

1.30

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Bray Wanderers

1.69

Waterford

2.32

allows per match

Bray Wanderers

1.30

Waterford

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bray Wanderers+0.00on par

Waterford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bray Wanderers ↓

Waterford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Bray Wanderers or draw

50%

Bray Wanderers or Waterford

77%

Draw or Waterford

73%

Winning margin

Bray Wanderers wins by 2+

11%

Waterford wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Bray Wanderers 1+ goals

72%

Bray Wanderers 2+ goals

36%

Bray Wanderers 3+ goals

13%

Waterford 1+ goals

84%

Waterford 2+ goals

54%

Waterford 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Bray Wanderers (draw refunded)

35%

Waterford (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bray Wanderers at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.30 · 121 matches

Waterford away — creates 2.32, concedes 0.84 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bray Wanderers attack 1.69 + Waterford defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.26

Waterford attack 2.32 + Bray Wanderers defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bray Wanderers scores more

27%

level

23%

Waterford scores more

50%

Waterford at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Waterford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

22'

34'

38'

42'

52'

52'

55'

59'

L. Fitzgerald← C. Davis

59'

L. Lovic← D. Craven

66'

C. Conn-Clarke← S. Griffin

66'

R. Idowu← D. McMenamy

71'

R. Burke

73'

C. Thompson← J. Power

75'

R. Coughlan

84'

E. Nolan← D. Larkin

Bray

Waterford

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Ryan

59'▲L. Fitzgerald←▼C. Davis

59'▲L. Lovic←▼D. Craven

73'▲C. Thompson←▼J. Power

Bray Wanderers substitutes

FitzgeraldLovicThompsonMoodyClarkeKnightWebsterChukwu

Manager: K. Long

66'▲C. Conn-Clarke←▼S. Griffin

66'▲R. Idowu←▼D. McMenamy

84'▲E. Nolan←▼D. Larkin

Waterford substitutes

Conn-ClarkeIdowuNolanWarrenCantwellAkachukwuMansfieldDonaghyOluwa