Bray Wanderers 0–3 Shelbourne: Result & Stats

Bray Wanderers

FT

0 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Shelbourne

1/30/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bray Wanderers34%

×Draw21%

Shelbourne45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bray WanderersExpected goals in this matchShelbourne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

2.08

Bray Wanderers

1.80

Shelbourne

2.08

Shelbourne creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

2.60

creates per match

1.75

2.40

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Bray Wanderers

2.60

Shelbourne

1.75

allows per match

Bray Wanderers

2.40

Shelbourne

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bray Wanderers+0.00on par

Shelbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bray Wanderers ↓

Shelbourne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Bray Wanderers or draw

55%

Bray Wanderers or Shelbourne

79%

Draw or Shelbourne

66%

Winning margin

Bray Wanderers wins by 2+

17%

Shelbourne wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Bray Wanderers 1+ goals

83%

Bray Wanderers 2+ goals

54%

Bray Wanderers 3+ goals

27%

Shelbourne 1+ goals

87%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

61%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Bray Wanderers (draw refunded)

43%

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bray Wanderers at home — creates 2.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bray Wanderers attack 2.60 + Shelbourne defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Shelbourne attack 1.75 + Bray Wanderers defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bray Wanderers scores more

34%

level

21%

Shelbourne scores more

45%

Shelbourne at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Bray

Shelbourne

Manager: Paul Heffernan

Manager: Joey O'Brien