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Bray Wanderers vs Shelbourne — First Division 2019

Bray Wanderers
Bray Wanderers
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Shelbourne
Shelbourne
6/11/2021First DivisionFirst Division · Round 11Carlisle Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Bray Wanderers32%
×Draw26%
Shelbourne42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bray Wanderers
1.26
Shelbourne
1.47

Shelbourne creates 17% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 25 away

creates per match

Bray Wanderers
1.69
Shelbourne
1.64

allows per match

Bray Wanderers
1.30
Shelbourne
0.84

finishing

Bray Wanderers+0.00on par
Shelbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bray Wanderers ↓

Shelbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bray Wanderers or draw
58%
Bray Wanderers or Shelbourne
74%
Draw or Shelbourne
68%

Winning margin

Bray Wanderers wins by 2+
14%
Shelbourne wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Bray Wanderers 1+ goals
72%
Bray Wanderers 2+ goals
36%
Bray Wanderers 3+ goals
13%
Shelbourne 1+ goals
77%
Shelbourne 2+ goals
43%
Shelbourne 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bray Wanderers (draw refunded)
44%
Shelbourne (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bray Wanderers at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.30 · 121 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bray Wanderers attack 1.69 + Shelbourne defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.26

Shelbourne attack 1.64 + Bray Wanderers defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bray Wanderers scores more
32%
level
26%
Shelbourne scores more
42%

Shelbourne at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bray Wanderers vs Shelbourne

Shelbourne beat Bray Wanderers 4-1 in First Division on June 11, 2021.

The match was played at Carlisle Grounds in Bray.