Brasil DE Pelotas 1–0 Bagé: Result & Stats

Brasil DE Pelotas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bagé

Gabriel Morbeck 15'

5/27/2026

Copa Gaúcha · Group Stage - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Brasil DE Pelotas57%

×Draw27%

Bagé16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brasil DE PelotasExpected goals in this matchBagé

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.64

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.47

Bagé

0.64

Brasil DE Pelotas creates 130% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

2.27

creates per match

1.00

0.27

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Brasil DE Pelotas

2.27

Bagé

1.00

allows per match

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.27

Bagé

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par

Bagé+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasil DE Pelotas ↓

Bagé →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Brasil DE Pelotas or draw

84%

Brasil DE Pelotas or Bagé

73%

Draw or Bagé

43%

Winning margin

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+

30%

Bagé wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals

77%

Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals

43%

Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals

18%

Bagé 1+ goals

47%

Bagé 2+ goals

14%

Bagé 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)

78%

Bagé (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasil DE Pelotas at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.27 · 11 matches

Bagé away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 2.27 + Bagé defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.47

Bagé attack 1.00 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more

57%

level

27%

Bagé scores more

16%

Brasil DE Pelotas at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Brasil DE Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Gabriel Morbeck

62'

65'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff