Bagé 1–1 Brasil DE Pelotas: Result & Stats

Bagé

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brasil DE Pelotas

Michel Henrique 50'

Guty 46'

6/4/2026

Copa Gaúcha · Group Stage - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bagé27%

×Draw29%

Brasil DE Pelotas44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BagéExpected goals in this matchBrasil DE Pelotas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.27

Bagé

0.93

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.27

Brasil DE Pelotas creates 37% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

0.75

creates per match

1.30

1.25

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Bagé

0.75

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.30

allows per match

Bagé

1.25

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bagé+0.00on par

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bagé ↓

Brasil DE Pelotas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bagé or draw

56%

Bagé or Brasil DE Pelotas

71%

Draw or Brasil DE Pelotas

73%

Winning margin

Bagé wins by 2+

9%

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Bagé 1+ goals

61%

Bagé 2+ goals

24%

Bagé 3+ goals

7%

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals

72%

Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals

36%

Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bagé (draw refunded)

38%

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bagé at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Brasil DE Pelotas away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bagé attack 0.75 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.93

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 1.30 + Bagé defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bagé scores more

27%

level

29%

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more

44%

Brasil DE Pelotas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Brasil DE Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Guty

50'

Michel Henrique

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff