Brasil DE Pelotas 4–0 Azuriz: Result & Stats

Brasil DE Pelotas

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Azuriz

Matheus Obina 80'

Thiago Goes 65'

Luiz Henrique 39', 31'

7/20/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Bento da Silva Freitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Brasil DE Pelotas46%

×Draw30%

Azuriz24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brasil DE PelotasExpected goals in this matchAzuriz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.78

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.20

Azuriz

0.78

Brasil DE Pelotas creates 54% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 20 away

1.34

creates per match

0.70

0.86

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.34

Azuriz

0.70

allows per match

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.86

Azuriz

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par

Azuriz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasil DE Pelotas ↓

Azuriz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Brasil DE Pelotas or draw

76%

Brasil DE Pelotas or Azuriz

70%

Draw or Azuriz

54%

Winning margin

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+

20%

Azuriz wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals

70%

Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals

34%

Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals

12%

Azuriz 1+ goals

54%

Azuriz 2+ goals

18%

Azuriz 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)

66%

Azuriz (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasil DE Pelotas at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

Azuriz away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 1.34 + Azuriz defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.20

Azuriz attack 0.70 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more

46%

level

30%

Azuriz scores more

24%

Brasil DE Pelotas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Brasil DE Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

Luiz Henrique

39'

Luiz Henrique

65'

Thiago Goes

80'

Matheus Obina

Brasil

Azuriz

Manager: Emerson Cris

Manager: Cícero Júnior