Azuriz 1–0 Brasil DE Pelotas: Result & Stats

Azuriz

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Brasil DE Pelotas

Edinho 42'

Everton Sena 90'

4/26/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 2Estadio Os Pioneiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Azuriz41%

×Draw31%

Brasil DE Pelotas27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AzurizExpected goals in this matchBrasil DE Pelotas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.82

Azuriz

1.08

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.82

Azuriz creates 32% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 29 away

0.85

creates per match

0.69

0.95

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Azuriz

0.85

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.69

allows per match

Azuriz

0.95

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Azuriz+0.00on par

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuriz ↓

Brasil DE Pelotas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Azuriz or draw

73%

Azuriz or Brasil DE Pelotas

69%

Draw or Brasil DE Pelotas

59%

Winning margin

Azuriz wins by 2+

17%

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Azuriz 1+ goals

66%

Azuriz 2+ goals

29%

Azuriz 3+ goals

10%

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals

56%

Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals

20%

Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Azuriz (draw refunded)

60%

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azuriz at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Brasil DE Pelotas away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azuriz attack 0.85 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 0.69 + Azuriz defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Azuriz scores more

41%

level

31%

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more

27%

Azuriz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Azuriz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

Edinho

90+3'

E. Sena

90'

Everton Sena

Azuriz

Brasil

⚽

⚽

Manager: Cícero Júnior

Azuriz substitutes

FerreiraCostaGalvánFelipeLuizãoBuzzettoLimaDavisMarquesEscobarAnizioBahia

Manager: Emerson Cris

Brasil DE Pelotas substitutes

MarcelNunesKauêAlexielDiasGobettiClébioAlvisiArturLucasMaranhão

Serie D: Azuriz 1–0 Brasil DE Pelotas

Azuriz beat Brasil DE Pelotas 1-0 in Serie D on April 26, 2025.

Goals: Edinho (42'), Everton Sena (90').

The match was played at Estadio Os Pioneiros in Pato Branco.

Azuriz vs Brasil DE Pelotas — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie D: Azuriz 1–0 Brasil DE Pelotas