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Brann vs Sandefjord — Eliteserien 2026

Brann
Brann
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sandefjord
Sandefjord
5/8/2023EliteserienEliteserien · Round 5Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Brann57%
×Draw21%
Sandefjord22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brann
2.04
Sandefjord
1.19

Brann creates 71% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 38 away

creates per match

Brann
2.22
Sandefjord
1.37

allows per match

Brann
1.01
Sandefjord
1.87

finishing

Brann+0.05on par
Sandefjord+0.18scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Sandefjord →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Brann or draw
78%
Brann or Sandefjord
79%
Draw or Sandefjord
43%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+
34%
Sandefjord wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals
87%
Brann 2+ goals
60%
Brann 3+ goals
33%
Sandefjord 1+ goals
70%
Sandefjord 2+ goals
33%
Sandefjord 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)
72%
Sandefjord (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.01 · 26 matches

Sandefjord away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.22 + Sandefjord defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.04

Sandefjord attack 1.37 + Brann defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Brann scores more
57%
level
21%
Sandefjord scores more
22%

Brann at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
M. RasmussenBrannBrann · M
8.6

Match Events

41'
Jakob Maslo Dunsby
65'
Federico Bikoro
74'
A. Heggebø← N. Jensen Wassberg
75'
A. Damnjanovic Nilsson← Féderico Bikoro
82'
Hugo Keto
85'
F. Nyenetue← J. Dunsby
85'
S. Mørk← D. Al-Saed

Possession

69%Brann

Shots

23Brann

Pass accuracy

56%Brann

Statistics

BrannSandefjord
Overview
69%Possession31%
23Total Shots5
14Corners1
7Fouls9
Shots
23Total Shots5
5On Target2
11Off Target1
7Blocked2
17Inside Box4
6Outside Box1
Passing
69%Possession31%
640Total Passes297
533Accurate Passes193
83%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
7Fouls9
0Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

Eliteserien: Brann 0–0 Sandefjord

Brann and Sandefjord drew 0-0 in Eliteserien on May 8, 2023.

Brann controlled possession (69%) and registered 23 shots to 5.

The match was played at Brann Stadion in Bergen.