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Brann vs Kristiansund BK — Eliteserien 2026

Brann
Brann
FT
4 – 2
HT: 4 – 2
Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund BK
B. Finne 41', 4'
A. Heggebo 22' (pen), 14'
M. Isah 40'
R. Alte 30'
6/1/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 9Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Brann67%
×Draw19%
Kristiansund BK14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brann
2.20
Kristiansund BK
0.88

Brann creates 150% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

Brann
2.25
Kristiansund BK
0.83

allows per match

Brann
0.93
Kristiansund BK
2.14

finishing

Brann-0.14scores less
Kristiansund BK+0.09on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Kristiansund BK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Brann or draw
86%
Brann or Kristiansund BK
81%
Draw or Kristiansund BK
33%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+
43%
Kristiansund BK wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals
89%
Brann 2+ goals
64%
Brann 3+ goals
37%
Kristiansund BK 1+ goals
59%
Kristiansund BK 2+ goals
22%
Kristiansund BK 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)
83%
Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.93 · 9 matches

Kristiansund BK away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.14 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.25 + Kristiansund BK defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.20

Kristiansund BK attack 0.83 + Brann defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Brann scores more
67%
level
19%
Kristiansund BK scores more
14%

Brann at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
A. HeggeboBrannBrann · F
8.9

Match Events

4'
B. Finne
14'
A. Heggebo↳ E. Gudmundsson
22'
A. HeggeboPenalty
30'
R. Alte↳ W. Igor
40'
M. Isah↳ S. Kilen
41'
B. Finne↳ A. Heggebo
43'
Emil KornvigGoal confirmed
46'
N. Odegard← R. Corlu
52'
Ruben Alte
59'
M. Hansen← B. Finne
59'
U. Mathisen← M. Sande
73'
F. Nyenetue← D. Tufekcic
75'
D. De Roeve← T. Pedersen
75'
L. Remmem← E. Gudmundsson
81'
Lars Remmem
88'
Emil Kornvig
89'
F. Flex← M. Rakneberg
89'
H. Haugen← I. Hoffmann
90+3'
R. Holten← J. Soltvedt

Possession

46%Brann

Shots

13Brann

Pass accuracy

49%Brann

Statistics

BrannKristiansund
Overview
46%Possession54%
13Total Shots9
2.54Expected Goals (xG)0.52
2Corners9
13Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots9
8On Target4
2Off Target3
3Blocked2
11Inside Box4
2Outside Box5
Passing
46%Possession54%
368Total Passes414
275Accurate Passes321
75%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls10
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Eliteserien: Brann 4–2 Kristiansund BK

Brann beat Kristiansund BK 4-2 in Eliteserien on June 1, 2025.

Goals: B. Finne (4', 41'), A. Heggebo (14', 22' pen), R. Alte (30'), M. Isah (40').

Kristiansund BK controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at Brann Stadion in Bergen.