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Brann vs KFUM Oslo — Eliteserien 2026

Brann
Brann
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KFUM Oslo
KFUM Oslo
S. Kartum 90+6'
N. Castro 82' (pen)
9/18/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 20Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Brann51%
×Draw25%
KFUM Oslo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brann
1.65
KFUM Oslo
1.08

Brann creates 53% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 29 away

creates per match

Brann
2.10
KFUM Oslo
1.08

allows per match

Brann
1.09
KFUM Oslo
1.19

finishing

Brann-0.01on par
KFUM Oslo+0.09on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

KFUM Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Brann or draw
75%
Brann or KFUM Oslo
75%
Draw or KFUM Oslo
49%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+
27%
KFUM Oslo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals
81%
Brann 2+ goals
49%
Brann 3+ goals
23%
KFUM Oslo 1+ goals
66%
KFUM Oslo 2+ goals
29%
KFUM Oslo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)
67%
KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

KFUM Oslo away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.19 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.10 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.65

KFUM Oslo attack 1.08 + Brann defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Brann scores more
51%
level
25%
KFUM Oslo scores more
25%

Brann at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
F. MyhreBrannBrann · M
7.7

Match Events

46'
M. Sande← S. Opsahl
50'
Teodor Haltvik
64'
J. Hjorth← D. Hickson
65'
M. Ndiaye← S. Sandal
67'
Haitam Aleesami
72'
A. Heggebø← U. Mathisen
80'
Aune Selland HeggebøPenalty confirmed
80'
Haitam Aleesami
80'
Haitam Aleesami
82'
N. CastroPenalty
83'
O. Okeke← T. Haltvik
84'
S. Kartum← B. Finne
88'
F. Knudsen← J. Soltvedt
88'
R. Svindland← R. Rasch
90+6'
S. Kartum↳ F. Myhre

Possession

Brann: 59KFUM: 4159%Brann

Shots

Brann: 13KFUM: 913Brann

Pass accuracy

Brann: 78KFUM: 7152%Brann

Statistics

BrannKFUM
Overview
59%Possession41%
13Total Shots9
1.80Expected Goals (xG)1.03
5Corners4
8Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots9
5On Target1
5Off Target4
3Blocked4
7Inside Box6
6Outside Box3
Passing
59%Possession41%
537Total Passes365
418Accurate Passes260
78%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls12
0Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Brann vs KFUM Oslo

Brann beat KFUM Oslo 2-0 in Eliteserien on September 18, 2024.

Goals: N. Castro (82' pen), S. Kartum (90+6').

Brann controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Brann Stadion in Bergen.