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Braintree vs Aldershot Town — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Braintree
Braintree
Preview
14:00
Aldershot Town
Aldershot Town
8/1/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
Big match
84%
Aldershot Town
model favours
5%11%84%
0–2
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
37%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Braintree5%
×Draw11%
Aldershot Town84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Braintree
0.50
Aldershot Town
2.77

Aldershot Town creates 454% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Braintree
0.00
Aldershot Town
3.21

allows per match

Braintree
2.33
Aldershot Town
1.00

finishing

Braintree+0.00on par
Aldershot Town+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Braintree ↓

Aldershot Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–111%
0–215%
0–314%
0–410%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Braintree or draw
16%
Braintree or Aldershot Town
89%
Draw or Aldershot Town
95%

Winning margin

Braintree wins by 2+
1%
Aldershot Town wins by 2+
64%

Team goals

Braintree 1+ goals
39%
Braintree 2+ goals
9%
Braintree 3+ goals
1%
Aldershot Town 1+ goals
94%
Aldershot Town 2+ goals
76%
Aldershot Town 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Braintree (draw refunded)
5%
Aldershot Town (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Braintree at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Aldershot Town away — creates 3.21, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Braintree attack 0.00 + Aldershot Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Aldershot Town attack 3.21 + Braintree defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Braintree scores more
5%
level
11%
Aldershot Town scores more
84%

Aldershot Town at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Aldershot Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Braintree
LLDD
Town
LWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Braintree face Aldershot Town (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Braintree hosting Aldershot Town. Match starts August 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.