Aldershot Town 1–1 Braintree: Result & Stats

Aldershot Town

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Braintree

J. Barrett 64'

C. Cooper 80'

9/30/2025

League #43 · Round 13Recreation Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Aldershot Town52%

×Draw25%

Braintree23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aldershot TownExpected goals in this matchBraintree

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.02

Aldershot Town

1.65

Braintree

1.02

Aldershot Town creates 62% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

1.24

creates per match

0.81

1.24

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Aldershot Town

1.24

Braintree

0.81

allows per match

Aldershot Town

1.24

Braintree

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aldershot Town+0.00on par

Braintree+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldershot Town ↓

Braintree →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Aldershot Town or draw

77%

Aldershot Town or Braintree

75%

Draw or Braintree

48%

Winning margin

Aldershot Town wins by 2+

28%

Braintree wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Aldershot Town 1+ goals

81%

Aldershot Town 2+ goals

49%

Aldershot Town 3+ goals

23%

Braintree 1+ goals

64%

Braintree 2+ goals

27%

Braintree 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Aldershot Town (draw refunded)

69%

Braintree (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldershot Town at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Braintree away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldershot Town attack 1.24 + Braintree defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.65

Braintree attack 0.81 + Aldershot Town defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Aldershot Town scores more

52%

level

25%

Braintree scores more

23%

Aldershot Town at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Aldershot Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

J. Vennings

41'

H. Ghandour← R. Jones

59'

M. Marshall-Miranda

64'

J. Barrett↳ K. Thomas

66'

J. Henry← J. Barrett

68'

J. Vennings

68'

J. Vennings

71'

M. Omrore← R. Clayton

71'

T. Blackwell← J. Akinde

80'

C. Cooper

83'

F. Hockey← T. Works

87'

T. Abrahams← J. Meerholz

Aldershot

Braintree

1

2

4

24

17

6

8

21

▼

Clayton

11

⚽

Cooper

14

▼

Akinde

38

▼

1

5

7

9

A

Thomas

10

⚽

▼

Barrett

11

▼

Jones

14

▼

19

24

28

34

Manager: Tommy Widdrington

41'▲H. Ghandour←▼R. Jones

66'▲J. Henry←▼J. Barrett

87'▲T. Abrahams←▼J. Meerholz

Aldershot Town substitutes

16Nash15Penman17Henry18Rai23Ghandour30Abrahams32Clarridge

Manager: Stephen William Pitt

71'▲M. Omrore←▼R. Clayton

71'▲T. Blackwell←▼J. Akinde

83'▲F. Hockey←▼T. Works

Braintree substitutes

5Omrore7Blackwell16Babic18Kamara19Hockey33Davis39Thorpe

League #43: Aldershot Town 1–1 Braintree

Aldershot Town and Braintree drew 1-1 in League #43 on September 30, 2025.

Goals: J. Barrett (64'), C. Cooper (80').

The match was played at Recreation Ground in Aldershot.

Aldershot Town vs Braintree — League #43 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #43: Aldershot Town 1–1 Braintree