Braintree 1–2 Aldershot Town: Result & Stats

Braintree

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Aldershot Town

T. Harris 60'

J. Henry 80'

S. Patton 50'

2/25/2026

League #43 · Round 35Rare Breed Meat Co. Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Braintree48%

×Draw26%

Aldershot Town27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BraintreeExpected goals in this matchAldershot Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.07

Braintree

1.52

Aldershot Town

1.07

Braintree creates 42% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

1.20

creates per match

0.94

1.20

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Braintree

1.20

Aldershot Town

0.94

allows per match

Braintree

1.20

Aldershot Town

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Braintree+0.00on par

Aldershot Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Braintree ↓

Aldershot Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Braintree or draw

73%

Braintree or Aldershot Town

74%

Draw or Aldershot Town

52%

Winning margin

Braintree wins by 2+

24%

Aldershot Town wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Braintree 1+ goals

78%

Braintree 2+ goals

45%

Braintree 3+ goals

20%

Aldershot Town 1+ goals

66%

Aldershot Town 2+ goals

29%

Aldershot Town 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Braintree (draw refunded)

64%

Aldershot Town (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Braintree at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Aldershot Town away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Braintree attack 1.20 + Aldershot Town defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.52

Aldershot Town attack 0.94 + Braintree defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Braintree scores more

48%

level

26%

Aldershot Town scores more

27%

Braintree at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Braintree will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

M. Penney← O. Scott

50'

S. Patton↳ J. Henry

60'

T. Harris↳ S. Kamara

62'

C. Warren← L. Jenkins

62'

64'

71'

75'

76'

79'

79'

Z. Massiah-Edwards← S. Kamara

80'

J. Henry

90+1'

C. Warren

Braintree

Aldershot

41

19

25

33

22

▼

Scott

7

Hargreave

14

Meerholz

17

⚽A

Henry

4

▼

Jenkins

29

⚽

▼

23

1

17

2

4

21

▼

Drake

6

Vennings

8

⚽

Harris

5

Omrore

16

▼

Babic

18

A

▼

Kamara

14

▼

Akinde

64'▲L. Walker←▼J. Akinde

71'▲C. Cooper←▼G. Babic

79'▲R. Clampin←▼B. Drake

79'▲Z. Massiah-Edwards←▼S. Kamara

Braintree substitutes

13Blunkell3Clampin9Walker10Hadi11Cooper15Smith24Massiah-Edwards

Manager: John Coleman

46'▲M. Penney←▼O. Scott

62'▲C. Warren←▼L. Jenkins

62'▲K. Thomas←▼S. Patton

Aldershot Town substitutes

16Nash11Peart12Anderson15Grogan24Warren42Penney9Thomas