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Bradford vs Stevenage — League Two 2018

Bradford
Bradford
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stevenage
Stevenage
L. Novak 81', 61'
E. List 37'
9/26/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 3The Utilita Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Bradford47%
×Draw28%
Stevenage25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bradford
1.31
Stevenage
0.88

Bradford creates 49% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 100 away

creates per match

Bradford
1.37
Stevenage
0.80

allows per match

Bradford
0.96
Stevenage
1.24

finishing

Bradford+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bradford or draw
75%
Bradford or Stevenage
72%
Draw or Stevenage
53%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+
22%
Stevenage wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals
73%
Bradford 2+ goals
38%
Bradford 3+ goals
14%
Stevenage 1+ goals
59%
Stevenage 2+ goals
22%
Stevenage 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)
65%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.96 · 141 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.37 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Bradford defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bradford scores more
47%
level
28%
Stevenage scores more
25%

Bradford at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
L. NovakBradfordBradford · F
9.2

Match Events

37'
E. List
61'
L. Novak↳ T. French
66'
G. Evans← C. Cooke
71'
R. Marshall← A. Read
81'
L. Novak↳ B. Clarke
87'
O. Akinwande← L. Prosser
90'
Billy Clarke
90'
Lee Novak
90+5'
J. Longridge← B. Clarke

Possession

61%Bradford

Shots

15Bradford

Pass accuracy

54%Bradford

Statistics

BradfordStevenage
Overview
61%Possession39%
15Total Shots12
4Corners5
15Fouls10
Shots
15Total Shots12
7On Target5
5Off Target4
3Blocked3
11Inside Box9
4Outside Box3
Passing
61%Possession39%
459Total Passes279
329Accurate Passes174
72%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
15Fouls10
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides2

League Two: Bradford 2–1 Stevenage

Bradford beat Stevenage 2-1 in League Two on September 26, 2020.

Goals: E. List (37'), L. Novak (61', 81').

Bradford controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at The Utilita Energy Stadium in Bradford, West Yorkshire.