Bradford 0–1 Bolton: Result & Stats | League One

Bradford

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bolton

X. Simons 81'

5/14/2026

League One · Semi-finalsValley Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Bradford43%

×Draw26%

Bolton31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BradfordExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.22

Bradford

1.49

Bolton

1.22

Bradford creates 22% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.57

creates per match

1.51

0.92

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Bradford

1.57

Bolton

1.51

allows per match

Bradford

0.92

Bolton

1.41

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Bradford-0.32scores less

Bolton-0.34scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bradford or draw

69%

Bradford or Bolton

74%

Draw or Bolton

57%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+

21%

Bolton wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals

77%

Bradford 2+ goals

44%

Bradford 3+ goals

19%

Bolton 1+ goals

70%

Bolton 2+ goals

34%

Bolton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)

58%

Bolton (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.41 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.57 + Bolton defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.49

Bolton attack 1.51 + Bradford defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bradford scores more

43%

level

26%

Bolton scores more

31%

Bradford at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

T. Wright

Bradford · F

7.7

Match Events

43'

M. Conway← E. Toal

46'

T. Wright← C. Tilt

61'

G. Lapslie← J. Metcalfe

61'

S. Humphrys← B. Pointon

62'

N. Powell← J. Wright

65'

T. Gale← I. Cissoko

66'

S. Dalby← R. Rodrigues

76'

X. Simons← E. Erhahon

76'

J. McAtee← M. Burstow

81'

X. Simons

90+1'

Aden Baldwin

90+2'

W. Swan← M. Power

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BradfordBolton

Overview

57%Possession43%

8Total Shots10

0.45Expected Goals (xG)0.77

8Corners3

14Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots10

2On Target2

4Off Target5

2Blocked3

3Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

417Total Passes322

266Accurate Passes183

64%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

0.55Goals Prevented0.55

Discipline

14Fouls14

1Yellow Cards0

4Offsides0