Bradford 1–1 Bolton: Result & Stats | League One

Bradford

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bolton

K. Jackson 80'

J. Kenny 72'

4/25/2026

League One · Round 45Valley Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Bradford43%

×Draw26%

Bolton31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BradfordExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.22

Bradford

1.49

Bolton

1.22

Bradford creates 22% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.57

creates per match

1.51

0.92

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Bradford

1.57

Bolton

1.51

allows per match

Bradford

0.92

Bolton

1.41

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Bradford-0.32scores less

Bolton-0.34scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bradford or draw

69%

Bradford or Bolton

74%

Draw or Bolton

57%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+

21%

Bolton wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals

77%

Bradford 2+ goals

44%

Bradford 3+ goals

19%

Bolton 1+ goals

70%

Bolton 2+ goals

34%

Bolton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)

58%

Bolton (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.41 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.57 + Bolton defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.49

Bolton attack 1.51 + Bradford defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bradford scores more

43%

level

26%

Bolton scores more

31%

Bradford at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

I. Cissoko

Bolton · M

8.3

Match Events

15'

Josh Neufville

36'

Joe Wright

65'

N. Powell← J. Neufville

65'

72'

79'

80'

87'

K. Dempsey← J. Sheehan

87'

T. Gale← I. Cissoko

90+1'

Chris Forino

90+5'

J. McAtee← J. Kenny

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BradfordBolton

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots17

6Corners5

13Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots17

2On Target3

1Off Target11

9Blocked3

9Inside Box10

3Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

284Total Passes345

153Accurate Passes224

54%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0