Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kairat Almaty vs UE Engordany — UEFA Europa League 2018

Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty
FT
7 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
UE Engordany
UE Engordany
7/19/2018UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 1st Qualifying RoundCentral Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kairat Almaty80%
×Draw12%
UE Engordany7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kairat Almaty
2.96
UE Engordany
0.80

Kairat Almaty creates 270% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kairat Almaty
2.43
UE Engordany
0.75

allows per match

Kairat Almaty
0.86
UE Engordany
3.50

finishing

Kairat Almaty+0.00on par
UE Engordany+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Almaty ↓

UE Engordany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Kairat Almaty or draw
93%
Kairat Almaty or UE Engordany
88%
Draw or UE Engordany
20%

Winning margin

Kairat Almaty wins by 2+
61%
UE Engordany wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kairat Almaty 1+ goals
95%
Kairat Almaty 2+ goals
79%
Kairat Almaty 3+ goals
55%
UE Engordany 1+ goals
55%
UE Engordany 2+ goals
19%
UE Engordany 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)
92%
UE Engordany (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Almaty at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

UE Engordany away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Almaty attack 2.43 + UE Engordany defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.96

UE Engordany attack 0.75 + Kairat Almaty defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Kairat Almaty scores more
80%
level
12%
UE Engordany scores more
7%

Kairat Almaty at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Kairat Almaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kairat Almaty vs UE Engordany

Kairat Almaty beat UE Engordany 7-1 in UEFA Europa League on July 19, 2018.

The match was played at Central Stadium in Almaty.