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UE Engordany vs Kairat Almaty — UEFA Europa League 2018

UE Engordany
UE Engordany
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty
7/12/2018UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 1st Qualifying RoundEstadi Comunal d'Andorra la Vella (Andorra la Vella)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

UE Engordany32%
×Draw25%
Kairat Almaty42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UE Engordany
1.25
Kairat Almaty
1.48

Kairat Almaty creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

UE Engordany
1.00
Kairat Almaty
1.17

allows per match

UE Engordany
1.80
Kairat Almaty
1.50

finishing

UE Engordany+0.00on par
Kairat Almaty+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UE Engordany ↓

Kairat Almaty →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

UE Engordany or draw
58%
UE Engordany or Kairat Almaty
75%
Draw or Kairat Almaty
68%

Winning margin

UE Engordany wins by 2+
14%
Kairat Almaty wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

UE Engordany 1+ goals
71%
UE Engordany 2+ goals
36%
UE Engordany 3+ goals
13%
Kairat Almaty 1+ goals
77%
Kairat Almaty 2+ goals
43%
Kairat Almaty 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

UE Engordany (draw refunded)
43%
Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UE Engordany at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Kairat Almaty away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UE Engordany attack 1.00 + Kairat Almaty defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kairat Almaty attack 1.17 + UE Engordany defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

UE Engordany scores more
32%
level
25%
Kairat Almaty scores more
42%

Kairat Almaty at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kairat Almaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UE Engordany vs Kairat Almaty

Kairat Almaty beat UE Engordany 3-0 in UEFA Europa League on July 12, 2018.

The match was played at Estadi Comunal d'Andorra la Vella (Andorra la Vella).