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Bövinghausen vs Bochum II — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Bövinghausen
Bövinghausen
CANC
13:00
Bochum II
Bochum II
4/21/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 32Sportplatz Bövinghausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bövinghausen21%
×Draw19%
Bochum II60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bövinghausen
1.33
Bochum II
2.35

Bochum II creates 77% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bövinghausen
1.66
Bochum II
1.88

allows per match

Bövinghausen
2.83
Bochum II
1.00

finishing

Bövinghausen+0.00on par
Bochum II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bövinghausen ↓

Bochum II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Bövinghausen or draw
40%
Bövinghausen or Bochum II
81%
Draw or Bochum II
79%

Winning margin

Bövinghausen wins by 2+
9%
Bochum II wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Bövinghausen 1+ goals
74%
Bövinghausen 2+ goals
38%
Bövinghausen 3+ goals
15%
Bochum II 1+ goals
90%
Bochum II 2+ goals
68%
Bochum II 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Bövinghausen (draw refunded)
26%
Bochum II (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bövinghausen at home — creates 1.66, concedes 2.83 · 47 matches

Bochum II away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bövinghausen attack 1.66 + Bochum II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bochum II attack 1.88 + Bövinghausen defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bövinghausen scores more
21%
level
19%
Bochum II scores more
60%

Bochum II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bochum II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bövinghausen host Bochum II

April 21, 2025: Bövinghausen take on Bochum II in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bövinghausen host Bochum II at Sportplatz Bövinghausen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.