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Bochum II vs Bövinghausen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Bochum II
Bochum II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bövinghausen
Bövinghausen
11/3/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 13Nebenplatz Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bochum II71%
×Draw16%
Bövinghausen13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bochum II
2.64
Bövinghausen
1.04

Bochum II creates 154% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 47 away

creates per match

Bochum II
2.78
Bövinghausen
1.30

allows per match

Bochum II
0.78
Bövinghausen
2.51

finishing

Bochum II+0.00on par
Bövinghausen+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bochum II ↓

Bövinghausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Bochum II or draw
87%
Bochum II or Bövinghausen
84%
Draw or Bövinghausen
29%

Winning margin

Bochum II wins by 2+
49%
Bövinghausen wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bochum II 1+ goals
93%
Bochum II 2+ goals
74%
Bochum II 3+ goals
48%
Bövinghausen 1+ goals
65%
Bövinghausen 2+ goals
28%
Bövinghausen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bochum II (draw refunded)
85%
Bövinghausen (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bochum II at home — creates 2.78, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

Bövinghausen away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.51 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bochum II attack 2.78 + Bövinghausen defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.64

Bövinghausen attack 1.30 + Bochum II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Bochum II scores more
71%
level
16%
Bövinghausen scores more
13%

Bochum II at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Bochum II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bochum II vs Bövinghausen

Bochum II beat Bövinghausen 3-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Nebenplatz Ruhrstadion in Bochum.