Bournemouth 3–3 West Ham: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

West Ham

C. Wilson 90+3'

N. Aké 57'

D. Gosling 29'

M. Arnautović 89', 81'

J. Collins 7'

12/26/2017

Premier League · Round 20Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Bournemouth53%

×Draw24%

West Ham23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.08

Bournemouth

1.75

West Ham

1.08

Bournemouth creates 62% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 35 away

1.65

creates per match

1.06

1.11

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.65

West Ham

1.06

allows per match

Bournemouth

1.11

West Ham

1.85

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Bournemouth-0.27scores less

West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

77%

Bournemouth or West Ham

76%

Draw or West Ham

47%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

29%

West Ham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

83%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

52%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

25%

West Ham 1+ goals

66%

West Ham 2+ goals

29%

West Ham 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

69%

West Ham (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.11 · 26 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.65 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.75

West Ham attack 1.06 + Bournemouth defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bournemouth scores more

53%

level

24%

West Ham scores more

23%

Bournemouth at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Arnautović

West Ham · F

8.5

Match Events

7'

J. Collins↳ A. Cresswell

29'

32'

37'

55'

56'

57'

60'

A. Carroll← Pedro Obiang

61'

Javier Hernández← A. Ayew

65'

B. Afobe← J. King

71'

79'

79'

81'

86'

87'

89'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthWest

Overview

56%Possession44%

25Total Shots10

7Corners4

12Fouls14

Shots

25Total Shots10

10On Target5

10Off Target3

5Blocked2

20Inside Box8

5Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

424Total Passes333

330Accurate Passes236

78%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls14

3Yellow Cards4

0Offsides2