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Bournemouth vs West Ham — Premier League 2026

Bournemouth
Bournemouth
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
West Ham
West Ham
J. King 90', 48', 31'
A. Ayew 83'
M. Antonio 10'
3/11/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Bournemouth53%
×Draw24%
West Ham23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bournemouth
1.75
West Ham
1.08

Bournemouth creates 62% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 35 away

creates per match

Bournemouth
1.65
West Ham
1.06

allows per match

Bournemouth
1.11
West Ham
1.85

finishing

Bournemouth-0.27scores less
West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw
77%
Bournemouth or West Ham
76%
Draw or West Ham
47%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+
29%
West Ham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals
83%
Bournemouth 2+ goals
52%
Bournemouth 3+ goals
25%
West Ham 1+ goals
66%
West Ham 2+ goals
29%
West Ham 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)
69%
West Ham (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.11 · 26 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.65 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.75

West Ham attack 1.06 + Bournemouth defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bournemouth scores more
53%
level
24%
West Ham scores more
23%

Bournemouth at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
J. KingBournemouthBournemouth · M
9.2

Match Events

9'
Mark Noble
10'
M. Antonio↳ S. Feghouli
31'
J. King
34'
Pedro Obiang
48'
J. King↳ B. Afobe
58'
R. Snodgrass← M. Noble
58'
A. Ayew← S. Feghouli
66'
Marc Pugh
72'
Benik Afobe
78'
S. Byram← C. Kouyaté
80'
Dan Gosling
83'
A. Ayew↳ S. Byram
85'
L. Mousset← R. Fraser
85'
J. Wilshere← B. Afobe
90'
Steve Cook
90'
J. King

Possession

51%Bournemouth

Shots

22Bournemouth

Pass accuracy

50%Bournemouth

Statistics

BournemouthWest
Overview
51%Possession49%
22Total Shots16
5Corners6
20Fouls15
Shots
22Total Shots16
9On Target7
8Off Target4
5Blocked5
17Inside Box9
5Outside Box7
Passing
51%Possession49%
358Total Passes340
270Accurate Passes257
75%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
5Saves6
Discipline
20Fouls15
4Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Bournemouth vs West Ham

Bournemouth beat West Ham 3-2 in Premier League on March 11, 2017.

Goals: M. Antonio (10'), J. King (31', 48', 90'), A. Ayew (83').

Bournemouth controlled possession (51%) and registered 22 shots to 16.

The match was played at Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth.