Bournemouth 3–0 Cardiff: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cardiff

A. Smithies 83' (OG)

D. Solanke 68'

R. Christie 25'

12/30/2021

Championship · Round 25Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bournemouth51%

×Draw23%

Cardiff25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.18

Bournemouth

1.78

Cardiff

1.18

Bournemouth creates 51% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 61 away

2.00

creates per match

1.03

1.33

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Bournemouth

2.00

Cardiff

1.03

allows per match

Bournemouth

1.33

Cardiff

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bournemouth+0.00on par

Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

75%

Bournemouth or Cardiff

77%

Draw or Cardiff

49%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

28%

Cardiff wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

83%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

53%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

26%

Cardiff 1+ goals

69%

Cardiff 2+ goals

33%

Cardiff 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

67%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 2.00 + Cardiff defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.78

Cardiff attack 1.03 + Bournemouth defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bournemouth scores more

51%

level

23%

Cardiff scores more

25%

Bournemouth at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

R. Christie

Bournemouth · F

8.0

Match Events

25'

R. Christie↳ D. Solanke

27'

45+3'

45+3'

45+2'

46'

59'

68'

D. Solanke↳ P. Billing

69'

J. Stanislas← J. Anthony

75'

R. Colwill← I. Davies

80'

J. Lowe← D. Solanke

83'

E. Marcondes← J. Stanislas

83'

A. SmithiesOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthCardiff

Overview

72%Possession28%

16Total Shots6

6Corners1

7Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots6

5On Target3

7Off Target2

4Blocked1

13Inside Box3

3Outside Box3

Passing

72%Possession28%

633Total Passes241

550Accurate Passes146

87%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2