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Bournemouth vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

Bournemouth
Bournemouth
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Cardiff
Cardiff
S. Long 67'
K. Moore 37' (pen)
S. Morrison 28'
2/24/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 32Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bournemouth51%
×Draw23%
Cardiff25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bournemouth
1.78
Cardiff
1.18

Bournemouth creates 51% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 61 away

creates per match

Bournemouth
2.00
Cardiff
1.03

allows per match

Bournemouth
1.33
Cardiff
1.56

finishing

Bournemouth+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw
75%
Bournemouth or Cardiff
77%
Draw or Cardiff
49%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+
28%
Cardiff wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals
83%
Bournemouth 2+ goals
53%
Bournemouth 3+ goals
26%
Cardiff 1+ goals
69%
Cardiff 2+ goals
33%
Cardiff 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)
67%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 2.00 + Cardiff defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.78

Cardiff attack 1.03 + Bournemouth defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bournemouth scores more
51%
level
23%
Cardiff scores more
25%

Bournemouth at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
S. MorrisonCardiffCardiff · D
7.9

Match Events

26'
Philip Billing
26'
Curtis Nelson
28'
S. Morrison↳ H. Wilson
37'
K. MoorePenalty
46'
S. Long← L. Cook
46'
A. Groeneveld← Diego Rico
60'
S. Ojo← J. Murphy
61'
L. Bacuna← H. Wilson
67'
S. Long
76'
Steve Cook
77'
Perry Ng
86'
Kieffer Moore
90'
Lloyd Kelly
90'
Aden Flint

Possession

68%Bournemouth

Shots

11Bournemouth

Pass accuracy

61%Bournemouth

Statistics

BournemouthCardiff
Overview
68%Possession32%
11Total Shots9
4Corners5
20Fouls16
Shots
11Total Shots9
6On Target4
2Off Target4
3Blocked1
5Inside Box7
6Outside Box2
Passing
68%Possession32%
496Total Passes222
393Accurate Passes110
79%Pass Accuracy50%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
20Fouls16
3Yellow Cards4
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Bournemouth vs Cardiff

Cardiff beat Bournemouth 2-1 in Championship on February 24, 2021.

Goals: S. Morrison (28'), K. Moore (37' pen), S. Long (67').

Bournemouth controlled possession (68%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth, Dorset.