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Bournemouth vs Cardiff — Premier League 2026

Bournemouth
Bournemouth
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cardiff
Cardiff
8/11/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bournemouth48%
×Draw26%
Cardiff26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bournemouth
1.52
Cardiff
1.04

Bournemouth creates 46% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 19 away

creates per match

Bournemouth
1.41
Cardiff
0.68

allows per match

Bournemouth
1.41
Cardiff
1.63

finishing

Bournemouth+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw
74%
Bournemouth or Cardiff
74%
Draw or Cardiff
52%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+
24%
Cardiff wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals
78%
Bournemouth 2+ goals
45%
Bournemouth 3+ goals
20%
Cardiff 1+ goals
65%
Cardiff 2+ goals
28%
Cardiff 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)
65%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 144 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.41 + Cardiff defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.52

Cardiff attack 0.68 + Bournemouth defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bournemouth scores more
48%
level
26%
Cardiff scores more
26%

Bournemouth at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bournemouth vs Cardiff

Bournemouth beat Cardiff 2-0 in Premier League on August 11, 2018.

The match was played at Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth.