Bournemouth 3–1 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Birmingham

J. Anthony 76'

D. Solanke 31'

R. Christie 17'

O. Hernández 69'

2/9/2022

Championship · Round 31Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Bournemouth53%

×Draw25%

Birmingham22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.97

Bournemouth

1.63

Birmingham

0.97

Bournemouth creates 68% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 168 away

1.75

creates per match

0.97

0.98

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.75

Birmingham

0.97

allows per match

Bournemouth

0.98

Birmingham

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bournemouth+0.00on par

Birmingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

78%

Bournemouth or Birmingham

75%

Draw or Birmingham

47%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

28%

Birmingham wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

80%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

48%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

22%

Birmingham 1+ goals

62%

Birmingham 2+ goals

25%

Birmingham 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

70%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 48 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.51 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.75 + Birmingham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.63

Birmingham attack 0.97 + Bournemouth defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bournemouth scores more

53%

level

25%

Birmingham scores more

22%

Bournemouth at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

R. Christie

Bournemouth · F

8.5

Match Events

17'

R. Christie↳ P. Billing

20'

Gary Gardner

31'

D. Solanke↳ R. Christie

34'

Kristian Pedersen

47'

Jordan Graham

54'

L. Jutkiewicz← S. Hogan

59'

S. Dembélé← R. Christie

60'

L. Cook← T. Cantwell

63'

O. Hernández← T. Mengi

67'

Jefferson Lerma

67'

Onel Hernández

69'

O. Hernández↳ I. Šunjić

76'

87'

89'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthBirmingham

Overview

53%Possession47%

9Total Shots10

5Corners8

10Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots10

5On Target5

3Off Target3

1Blocked2

7Inside Box6

2Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

452Total Passes375

365Accurate Passes290

81%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls16

0Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0