Birmingham 0–2 Bournemouth: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Bournemouth

J. Anthony 87'

D. Solanke 77'

8/18/2021

Championship · Round 3St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Birmingham30%

×Draw27%

Bournemouth43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchBournemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.34

Birmingham

1.08

Bournemouth

1.34

Bournemouth creates 24% more chances

Season form · 175 home / 50 away

1.25

creates per match

1.40

1.29

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Birmingham

1.25

Bournemouth

1.40

allows per match

Birmingham

1.29

Bournemouth

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par

Bournemouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Bournemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

57%

Birmingham or Bournemouth

73%

Draw or Bournemouth

70%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

12%

Bournemouth wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

66%

Birmingham 2+ goals

29%

Birmingham 3+ goals

10%

Bournemouth 1+ goals

74%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

39%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

41%

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 175 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.25 + Bournemouth defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.08

Bournemouth attack 1.40 + Birmingham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Birmingham scores more

30%

level

27%

Bournemouth scores more

43%

Bournemouth at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

Z. Rossi

Bournemouth · D

8.2

Match Events

60'

J. Stanislas← E. Marcondes

69'

B. Pearson← L. Davis

70'

C. Aneke← L. Jutkiewicz

73'

Kristian Pedersen

77'

D. Solanke↳ B. Pearson

79'

S. Hogan← J. Leko

87'

Iván Sánchez← T. Chong

87'

J. Anthony↳ Z. Rossi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamBournemouth

Overview

35%Possession65%

9Total Shots9

5Corners3

17Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots9

3On Target4

2Off Target4

4Blocked1

6Inside Box3

3Outside Box6

Passing

35%Possession65%

276Total Passes548

195Accurate Passes466

71%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0

5Offsides0