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Bourj vs Al Nejmeh — Premier League 2019

Bourj
Bourj
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Nejmeh
Al Nejmeh
3/29/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Fouad Shehab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Bourj25%
×Draw27%
Al Nejmeh48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bourj
0.91
Al Nejmeh
1.38

Al Nejmeh creates 52% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 70 away

creates per match

Bourj
1.13
Al Nejmeh
1.53

allows per match

Bourj
1.23
Al Nejmeh
0.69

finishing

Bourj+0.00on par
Al Nejmeh+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bourj ↓

Al Nejmeh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bourj or draw
52%
Bourj or Al Nejmeh
73%
Draw or Al Nejmeh
75%

Winning margin

Bourj wins by 2+
8%
Al Nejmeh wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Bourj 1+ goals
60%
Bourj 2+ goals
23%
Bourj 3+ goals
6%
Al Nejmeh 1+ goals
75%
Al Nejmeh 2+ goals
40%
Al Nejmeh 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bourj (draw refunded)
34%
Al Nejmeh (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bourj at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

Al Nejmeh away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.69 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bourj attack 1.13 + Al Nejmeh defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.91

Al Nejmeh attack 1.53 + Bourj defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bourj scores more
25%
level
27%
Al Nejmeh scores more
48%

Al Nejmeh at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Nejmeh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bourj 1–0 Al Nejmeh

Bourj beat Al Nejmeh 1-0 in Premier League on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Fouad Shehab Stadium in Jounie.