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Al Nejmeh vs Bourj — Premier League 2019

Al Nejmeh
Al Nejmeh
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bourj
Bourj
3/14/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 6Tripoli International Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Al Nejmeh49%
×Draw27%
Bourj24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Nejmeh
1.45
Bourj
0.93

Al Nejmeh creates 56% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 57 away

creates per match

Al Nejmeh
1.83
Bourj
1.02

allows per match

Al Nejmeh
0.83
Bourj
1.07

finishing

Al Nejmeh+0.00on par
Bourj+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nejmeh ↓

Bourj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Nejmeh or draw
76%
Al Nejmeh or Bourj
73%
Draw or Bourj
51%

Winning margin

Al Nejmeh wins by 2+
24%
Bourj wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Nejmeh 1+ goals
77%
Al Nejmeh 2+ goals
42%
Al Nejmeh 3+ goals
18%
Bourj 1+ goals
61%
Bourj 2+ goals
24%
Bourj 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Nejmeh (draw refunded)
67%
Bourj (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nejmeh at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 65 matches

Bourj away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nejmeh attack 1.83 + Bourj defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.45

Bourj attack 1.02 + Al Nejmeh defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al Nejmeh scores more
49%
level
27%
Bourj scores more
24%

Al Nejmeh at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Nejmeh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Nejmeh 1–0 Bourj

Al Nejmeh beat Bourj 1-0 in Premier League on March 14, 2024.

The match was played at Tripoli International Olympic Stadium in Tarabulus.