Bourj 0–0 Al Akhaa Al Ahli: Result & Stats

Bourj

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Akhaa Al Ahli

12/13/2020

Premier League · Round 8Al Ahed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Bourj43%

×Draw28%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BourjExpected goals in this matchAl Akhaa Al Ahli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.96

Bourj

1.27

Al Akhaa Al Ahli

0.96

Bourj creates 32% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 29 away

1.13

creates per match

0.69

1.23

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Bourj

1.13

Al Akhaa Al Ahli

0.69

allows per match

Bourj

1.23

Al Akhaa Al Ahli

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bourj+0.00on par

Al Akhaa Al Ahli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bourj ↓

Al Akhaa Al Ahli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bourj or draw

72%

Bourj or Al Akhaa Al Ahli

72%

Draw or Al Akhaa Al Ahli

57%

Winning margin

Bourj wins by 2+

20%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bourj 1+ goals

72%

Bourj 2+ goals

36%

Bourj 3+ goals

14%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli 1+ goals

62%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli 2+ goals

25%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bourj (draw refunded)

61%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bourj at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

Al Akhaa Al Ahli away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bourj attack 1.13 + Al Akhaa Al Ahli defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Al Akhaa Al Ahli attack 0.69 + Bourj defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bourj scores more

43%

level

28%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli scores more

28%

Bourj at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bourj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff