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Al Akhaa Al Ahli vs Bourj — Premier League 2019

Al Akhaa Al Ahli
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bourj
Bourj
10/15/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Amin Abdelnour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Al Akhaa Al Ahli33%
×Draw30%
Bourj37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Akhaa Al Ahli
0.99
Bourj
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 57 away

creates per match

Al Akhaa Al Ahli
0.90
Bourj
1.02

allows per match

Al Akhaa Al Ahli
1.10
Bourj
1.07

finishing

Al Akhaa Al Ahli+0.00on par
Bourj+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Akhaa Al Ahli ↓

Bourj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Akhaa Al Ahli or draw
63%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli or Bourj
70%
Draw or Bourj
67%

Winning margin

Al Akhaa Al Ahli wins by 2+
12%
Bourj wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Akhaa Al Ahli 1+ goals
63%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 2+ goals
26%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 3+ goals
8%
Bourj 1+ goals
65%
Bourj 2+ goals
29%
Bourj 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Akhaa Al Ahli (draw refunded)
47%
Bourj (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Akhaa Al Ahli at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

Bourj away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Akhaa Al Ahli attack 0.90 + Bourj defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.99

Bourj attack 1.02 + Al Akhaa Al Ahli defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Akhaa Al Ahli scores more
33%
level
30%
Bourj scores more
37%

Bourj at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bourj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Akhaa Al Ahli 0–2 Bourj

Bourj beat Al Akhaa Al Ahli 2-0 in Premier League on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Amin Abdelnour Stadium in Bhamdoun.