Boulogne 4–2 Amiens: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Boulogne

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Amiens

N. Fatar 90', 77'

J. Roussillon 58' (OG)

C. Fatou 42'

S. Ntamack 73'

I. Sane 10'

3/6/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 26Stade de la Libération

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Boulogne37%

×Draw27%

Amiens36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoulogneExpected goals in this matchAmiens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.25

Boulogne

1.27

Amiens

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 113 away

1.00

creates per match

0.98

1.52

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Boulogne

1.00

Amiens

0.98

allows per match

Boulogne

1.52

Amiens

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boulogne+0.00on par

Amiens+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boulogne ↓

Amiens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Boulogne or draw

64%

Boulogne or Amiens

73%

Draw or Amiens

63%

Winning margin

Boulogne wins by 2+

16%

Amiens wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Boulogne 1+ goals

72%

Boulogne 2+ goals

36%

Boulogne 3+ goals

14%

Amiens 1+ goals

71%

Amiens 2+ goals

36%

Amiens 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Boulogne (draw refunded)

51%

Amiens (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boulogne at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 29 matches

Amiens away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.53 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boulogne attack 1.00 + Amiens defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Amiens attack 0.98 + Boulogne defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Boulogne scores more

37%

level

27%

Amiens scores more

36%

Boulogne at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Boulogne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

N. Fatar

Boulogne · F

8.9

Match Events

10'

23'

25'

31'

36'

36'

Skelly AlveroCard upgrade

37'

Z. Moco← J. Bultel

42'

C. Fatou↳ D. Thiam

46'

T. Monconduit← K. Kaiboue

46'

A. Leautey← N. Kandil

58'

J. RoussillonOwn goal

59'

S. Ntamack← I. Sane

66'

I. Hamache← T. Averlant

68'

N. Fatar← A. El Farissi

68'

M. Lecolier← C. Fatou

73'

S. Ntamack

77'

N. Fatar↳ M. Lecolier

78'

A. Platret← S. Duflos

83'

83'

85'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoulogneAmiens

Overview

65%Possession35%

13Total Shots13

6Corners5

18Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots13

6On Target6

4Off Target7

3Blocked0

7Inside Box9

6Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

507Total Passes271

421Accurate Passes176

83%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1