Boulogne 2–2 Amiens: Result & Stats

Boulogne

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Amiens

C. Fatou 81'

F. Boulet 3'

T. Averlant 61'

V. Lobry 44'

7/19/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Boulogne39%

×Draw24%

Amiens38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoulogneExpected goals in this matchAmiens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.57

Boulogne

1.59

Amiens

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.43

creates per match

2.00

1.14

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Boulogne

1.43

Amiens

2.00

allows per match

Boulogne

1.14

Amiens

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boulogne+0.00on par

Amiens+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boulogne ↓

Amiens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Boulogne or draw

62%

Boulogne or Amiens

76%

Draw or Amiens

61%

Winning margin

Boulogne wins by 2+

19%

Amiens wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Boulogne 1+ goals

80%

Boulogne 2+ goals

47%

Boulogne 3+ goals

21%

Amiens 1+ goals

79%

Amiens 2+ goals

46%

Amiens 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Boulogne (draw refunded)

51%

Amiens (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boulogne at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Amiens away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boulogne attack 1.43 + Amiens defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.59

Amiens attack 2.00 + Boulogne defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Boulogne scores more

39%

level

24%

Amiens scores more

38%

Boulogne at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Boulogne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

44'

61'

81'

Boulogne

Amiens

Manager: Fabien Dagneaux

Manager: Omar Daf