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Botswana vs Angola — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Botswana
Botswana
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Angola
Angola
Wilson Eduardo 21'
3/22/2019Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 7Francistown Stadium (Francistown)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Botswana21%
×Draw33%
Angola46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botswana
0.61
Angola
1.07

Angola creates 75% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Botswana
0.00
Angola
0.89

allows per match

Botswana
1.25
Angola
1.22

finishing

Botswana+0.00on par
Angola+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botswana ↓

Angola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–120%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Botswana or draw
54%
Botswana or Angola
67%
Draw or Angola
79%

Winning margin

Botswana wins by 2+
5%
Angola wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Botswana 1+ goals
46%
Botswana 2+ goals
13%
Botswana 3+ goals
2%
Angola 1+ goals
66%
Angola 2+ goals
29%
Angola 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Botswana (draw refunded)
31%
Angola (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botswana at home — creates 0.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Angola away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botswana attack 0.00 + Angola defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.61

Angola attack 0.89 + Botswana defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Botswana scores more
21%
level
33%
Angola scores more
46%

Angola at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Angola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
Wilson Eduardo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botswana vs Angola

Angola beat Botswana 1-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on March 22, 2019.

Goals: Wilson Eduardo (21').

The match was played at Francistown Stadium (Francistown).