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Angola vs Botswana — Friendlies 2026

Angola
Angola
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Botswana
Botswana
11/17/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Volkswagen Dobsonville Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Angola51%
×Draw32%
Botswana17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angola
1.14
Botswana
0.52

Angola creates 119% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Angola
1.67
Botswana
0.20

allows per match

Angola
0.83
Botswana
0.60

finishing

Angola+0.00on par
Botswana+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angola ↓

Botswana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–110%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Angola or draw
83%
Angola or Botswana
68%
Draw or Botswana
49%

Winning margin

Angola wins by 2+
22%
Botswana wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Angola 1+ goals
68%
Angola 2+ goals
32%
Angola 3+ goals
11%
Botswana 1+ goals
41%
Botswana 2+ goals
10%
Botswana 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Angola (draw refunded)
75%
Botswana (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angola at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Botswana away — creates 0.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angola attack 1.67 + Botswana defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.14

Botswana attack 0.20 + Angola defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Angola scores more
51%
level
32%
Botswana scores more
17%

Angola at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Angola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Angola
Botswana
Pedro Gonçalves
Manager: Pedro Gonçalves
M. Mpote
Manager: M. Mpote

Friendlies: Angola 1–0 Botswana

Angola beat Botswana 1-0 in Friendlies on November 17, 2022.

The match was played at Volkswagen Dobsonville Stadium in Johannesburg, GA.