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Botev Vratsa vs Slavia Sofia — First League 2026

Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Slavia Sofia
Slavia Sofia
11/24/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Hristo Botev Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Botev Vratsa39%
×Draw29%
Slavia Sofia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa
1.18
Slavia Sofia
1.06

Botev Vratsa creates 11% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 138 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa
1.02
Slavia Sofia
1.00

allows per match

Botev Vratsa
1.12
Slavia Sofia
1.34

finishing

Botev Vratsa+0.00on par
Slavia Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa ↓

Slavia Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa or draw
67%
Botev Vratsa or Slavia Sofia
71%
Draw or Slavia Sofia
61%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
16%
Slavia Sofia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
69%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
33%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
12%
Slavia Sofia 1+ goals
65%
Slavia Sofia 2+ goals
29%
Slavia Sofia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
54%
Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.12 · 138 matches

Slavia Sofia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa attack 1.02 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.18

Slavia Sofia attack 1.00 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Botev Vratsa scores more
39%
level
29%
Slavia Sofia scores more
33%

Botev Vratsa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Botev Vratsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Vratsa vs Slavia Sofia

Slavia Sofia beat Botev Vratsa 1-0 in First League on November 24, 2025.

The match was played at Hristo Botev Stadium in Vraca.