Botev Vratsa 2–1 Slavia Sofia: Result & Stats

Botev Vratsa

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Slavia Sofia

5/25/2025

First League · Relegation Round - 7Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Botev Vratsa39%

×Draw29%

Slavia Sofia32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev VratsaExpected goals in this matchSlavia Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.06

Botev Vratsa

1.19

Slavia Sofia

1.06

Botev Vratsa creates 12% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 138 away

1.04

creates per match

1.00

1.12

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Botev Vratsa

1.04

Slavia Sofia

1.00

allows per match

Botev Vratsa

1.12

Slavia Sofia

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Vratsa+0.00on par

Slavia Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa ↓

Slavia Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa or draw

68%

Botev Vratsa or Slavia Sofia

71%

Draw or Slavia Sofia

61%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+

17%

Slavia Sofia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals

70%

Botev Vratsa 2+ goals

33%

Botev Vratsa 3+ goals

12%

Slavia Sofia 1+ goals

65%

Slavia Sofia 2+ goals

29%

Slavia Sofia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)

55%

Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.12 · 139 matches

Slavia Sofia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa attack 1.04 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Slavia Sofia attack 1.00 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Botev Vratsa scores more

39%

level

29%

Slavia Sofia scores more

32%

Botev Vratsa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Botev Vratsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff