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Botev Vratsa vs CSKA 1948 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
CANC
13:00
CSKA 1948
CSKA 1948
1/31/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Botev Vratsa52%
×Draw24%
CSKA 194824%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa
1.69
CSKA 1948
1.06

Botev Vratsa creates 59% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa
1.60
CSKA 1948
0.92

allows per match

Botev Vratsa
1.20
CSKA 1948
1.77

finishing

Botev Vratsa+0.00on par
CSKA 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa ↓

CSKA 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa or draw
76%
Botev Vratsa or CSKA 1948
76%
Draw or CSKA 1948
48%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
28%
CSKA 1948 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
82%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
50%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
24%
CSKA 1948 1+ goals
65%
CSKA 1948 2+ goals
29%
CSKA 1948 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
69%
CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

CSKA 1948 away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa attack 1.60 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.69

CSKA 1948 attack 0.92 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Botev Vratsa scores more
52%
level
24%
CSKA 1948 scores more
24%

Botev Vratsa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Botev Vratsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Botev Vratsa host CSKA 1948

January 31, 2024: Botev Vratsa take on CSKA 1948 in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Botev Vratsa host CSKA 1948 at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.