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Botev Vratsa II vs Boruna Tsareva livada — Third League - Northwest 2018

Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
FT
1 – 2
Boruna Tsareva livada
Boruna Tsareva livada
4/13/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 23Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Botev Vratsa II59%
×Draw21%
Boruna Tsareva livada20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa II
2.12
Boruna Tsareva livada
1.15

Botev Vratsa II creates 84% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 29 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa II
1.61
Boruna Tsareva livada
0.72

allows per match

Botev Vratsa II
1.58
Boruna Tsareva livada
2.62

finishing

Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par
Boruna Tsareva livada+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa II ↓

Boruna Tsareva livada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa II or draw
80%
Botev Vratsa II or Boruna Tsareva livada
79%
Draw or Boruna Tsareva livada
41%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
36%
Boruna Tsareva livada wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
88%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
62%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
35%
Boruna Tsareva livada 1+ goals
68%
Boruna Tsareva livada 2+ goals
32%
Boruna Tsareva livada 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
75%
Boruna Tsareva livada (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa II at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.58 · 62 matches

Boruna Tsareva livada away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.61 + Boruna Tsareva livada defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.12

Boruna Tsareva livada attack 0.72 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Botev Vratsa II scores more
59%
level
21%
Boruna Tsareva livada scores more
20%

Botev Vratsa II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Botev Vratsa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Vratsa II vs Boruna Tsareva livada

Boruna Tsareva livada beat Botev Vratsa II 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Vratsa.