Boruna Tsareva livada 2–1 Botev Vratsa II

Boruna Tsareva livada

FT

2 – 1

Botev Vratsa II

10/3/2022

Third League - Northwest · Northwest - 9Stadion Tsareva Livada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Boruna Tsareva livada41%

×Draw22%

Botev Vratsa II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boruna Tsareva livadaExpected goals in this matchBotev Vratsa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.69

Boruna Tsareva livada

1.79

Botev Vratsa II

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 61 away

1.75

creates per match

1.16

2.21

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Boruna Tsareva livada

1.75

Botev Vratsa II

1.16

allows per match

Boruna Tsareva livada

2.21

Botev Vratsa II

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boruna Tsareva livada+0.00on par

Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boruna Tsareva livada ↓

Botev Vratsa II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Boruna Tsareva livada or draw

63%

Boruna Tsareva livada or Botev Vratsa II

78%

Draw or Botev Vratsa II

59%

Winning margin

Boruna Tsareva livada wins by 2+

21%

Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Boruna Tsareva livada 1+ goals

83%

Boruna Tsareva livada 2+ goals

53%

Boruna Tsareva livada 3+ goals

26%

Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals

82%

Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals

50%

Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Boruna Tsareva livada (draw refunded)

53%

Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boruna Tsareva livada at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.21 · 28 matches

Botev Vratsa II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.82 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boruna Tsareva livada attack 1.75 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.79

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.16 + Boruna Tsareva livada defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Boruna Tsareva livada scores more

41%

level

22%

Botev Vratsa II scores more

37%

Boruna Tsareva livada at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Boruna Tsareva livada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff